The market moved

+2.2ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Other · resolves Jan 31 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.2pp shift. Resolution depends on the cdc case counter by january 31, 2026, 11:59 pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: the CDC case counter by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.