Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 15.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.