The market moved
-5.0ppin 24h · now 36¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 31 · vol $558.03
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 36¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.