The market moved
+1.0ppin 24h · now 61¢
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $102.63
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 61¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: credible reporting — https://volcano.si.edu/).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.