Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 28¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.