Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 6¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 11.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 0.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.