Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.8pp shift. Resolution depends on to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.