Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: credible reporting — https://volcano.si.edu/).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.