The market moved
-14.5ppin 24h · now 22¢
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 31 · vol $82.69
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 22¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.5pp shift. Resolution depends on united nations — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: United Nations.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.