The market moved
-4.0ppin 24h · now 18¢
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 31 · vol $61.52
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.