Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: US government.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.