Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the total number of votes cast for u — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the total number of votes cast for U — https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.