The market moved

-0.9ppin 24h · now 99¢

Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?

Weather · resolves Jun 15 · vol $2.2K

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 99¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 9.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.