Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 43¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the candidate who wins the nomination for the republican party to contest the ky-04 congressional district seat in th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in th — https://www.rnc.org/.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 18.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.