The market moved
-9.5ppin 24h · now 41¢
Will Thomas Müller win the 2026 MLS All-Star Shooting Challenge?
Other · resolves Jul 29 · vol $1.03
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 41¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 4.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.