The market moved
+0.9ppin 24h · now 96¢
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $783.34
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 96¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.