Will Toby Doeden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by 15–20%?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 42¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.8pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://sdsos.gov/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.