Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.8pp shift. Resolution depends on to the individual who is announced as the next senate majority leader after the november 3, 2026, u — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.