The market moved

-0.3ppin 24h · now

Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?

Weather · resolves Aug 19 · vol $2.49

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on from the cphc advisory or special advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisor — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisor — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.