Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on cnbc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: cnbc — https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/27/trump-says-mexico-canada-tariffs-will-start-march-4-plus-additional-10percent-on-china.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.