The market moved

-3.5ppin 24h · now

Will Trump fly in original Air Force 1 again this month?

Politics · resolves Jul 31 · vol $7.59

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.ms.now/news/officials-say-trump-switched-out-new-air-force-one-over-security-concerns).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.