Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 10-20% on the EU by June 30?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 23.4pp shift. Resolution depends on to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the trump administration on imports into the united states from the e — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the size of the first general tariff enacted by the Trump administration on imports into the United States from the E.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.