Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in his first week?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on department of commerce — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Commerce.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.