The market moved
-38.5ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will Trump kiss someone on July 4?
Politics · resolves Jul 4 · vol $54.65
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 38.5pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.
What to verify
- No resolution source was tagged in the market metadata — read the question text on Polymarket carefully before acting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.