The market moved
+67.5ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?
Politics · resolves Nov 4 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 67.5pp shift. Resolution depends on realclearpolling.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: realclearpolling.com — https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.