Will Trump list the Tren de Aragua as a terrorist organization before April?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 5.4pp shift. Resolution depends on state department — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: State Department — https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designating-cartels-and-other-organizations-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-and-specially-designated-global-terrorists/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.