The market moved

-16.5ppin 24h · now 26¢

Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week?

Geopolitics · resolves Aug 16 · vol $230.08

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 26¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 16.5pp shift. Resolution depends on @realdonaldtrump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: @realDonaldTrump.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.