Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.6pp shift. Resolution depends on department of the treasury — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of the Treasury — https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.