The market moved

+11.5ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will Trump say "America" or "American" first during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Politics · resolves Feb 24 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 11.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the first listed term donald trump says during his appearance at the specified event — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the first listed term Donald Trump says during his appearance at the specified event — https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.