The market moved

-20.0ppin 24h · now 28¢

Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?

Politics · resolves Aug 14 · vol $2.2K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 28¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 20.0pp shift. Resolution depends on x.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: x.com — https://x.com/bern_hogan/status/2086883175402184730).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 30.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.