The market moved

-77.0ppin 24h · now

Will Trump say "Birth" or "Birthday" at Fort Bragg on Friday?

Politics · resolves Feb 13 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 77.0pp shift. Resolution depends on rollcall.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: rollcall.com — https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.