The market moved

+28.9ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will Trump say "China" during Pennsylvania events?

Politics · resolves Jun 23 · vol $744.22

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 28.9pp shift. Resolution depends on x.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: x.com — https://x.com/RepMeuser/status/2067728952404115773).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 2.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.