The market moved

+1.5ppin 24h · now 26¢

Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?

Geopolitics · resolves May 15 · vol $6.9K

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 26¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on cnn.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: cnn.com — https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk).
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 14.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.