Will Trump say "Hawk" in May?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 34¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.

What to verify

• No resolution source was tagged in the market metadata — read the question text on Polymarket carefully before acting.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.