Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on cnn.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: disputed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: cnn.com — https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "disputed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.