The market moved

-9.5ppin 24h · now 45¢

Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during Friday roundtable?

Politics · resolves Aug 7 · vol $415.21

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 45¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.5pp shift. Resolution depends on x.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: x.com — https://x.com/ErnestScheyder/status/2084315810361733183).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 4.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.