Will Trump say "Lucky" during events with Rutte?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 39.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/03/nato-mark-rutte-donald-trump-meeting-00858701).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.