The market moved

-19.5ppin 24h · now 43¢

Will Trump say "Maduro" this week?

Politics · resolves Jul 5 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 43¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 19.5pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.