The market moved
+8.5ppin 24h · now 65¢
Will Trump say "Mental Institution" or "Mental Institute" this week?
Politics · resolves Aug 16 · vol $189.70
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 65¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 8.5pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.