The market moved
-2.5ppin 24h · now 30¢
Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?
Politics · resolves Jul 16 · vol $437.75
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 30¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on @realdonaldtrump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: @realDonaldTrump — https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 29.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.