Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during White House Correspondents Dinner?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 29¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on white house — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: White House — https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 22.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.