The market moved

-19.5ppin 24h · now

Will Trump say "Nuclear" 15+ times during Speech to the Nation?

Geopolitics · resolves Jul 16 · vol $1.3K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 7¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 19.5pp shift. Resolution depends on @realdonaldtrump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: @realDonaldTrump — https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 29.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.