Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 58¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on cnn.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: cnn.com — https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 37.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.