The market moved
-32.3ppin 24h · now 4¢
Will Trump say "Sovereign" or "Sovereignty" during Chinese State Banquet?
Geopolitics · resolves May 13 · vol $231.49
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 32.3pp shift. Resolution depends on rollcall.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: rollcall.com — https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.