The market moved

-27.5ppin 24h · now

Will Trump say "Supreme Intelligence" or "Superior Intelligence" at Defense and Innovation Summit?

Geopolitics · resolves Jul 15 · vol $472.81

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 27.5pp shift. Resolution depends on politicspa.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: politicspa.com — https://politicspa.com/trump-to-headline-mccormicks-defense-and-innovation-summit-in-july/149365/).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 2.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.