The market moved
+7.0ppin 24h · now 22¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Speech to the Nation?
Politics · resolves Jul 16 · vol $5.5K
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 22¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.0pp shift. Resolution depends on @realdonaldtrump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: @realDonaldTrump — https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 0.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.