The market moved
+25.5ppin 24h · now 71¢
Will Trump wear a red tie on July 4?
Politics · resolves Jul 4 · vol $3.61
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 71¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 25.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.