The market moved

-0.1ppin 24h · now

Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 48.5% or higher on March 7?

Politics · resolves Mar 7 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to fivethirtyeight's approval rating for donald trump on march 7, 2025 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to FiveThirtyEight's approval rating for Donald Trump on March 7, 2025 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.