Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on August 22?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on to silver bulletin's approval rating for donald trump on august 22, 2025 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 22, 2025 — https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.