The market moved

-18.6ppin 24h · now

Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 5 and 10 minutes long?

Politics · resolves Jul 17 · vol $1.1K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 18.6pp shift. Resolution depends on @realdonaldtrump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: @realDonaldTrump — https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 27.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.